Originally Posted by
Devildog40
State of Hiring:
DL 11,103 pilots since 2014
UA 11,104 pilots since 2014
AA 9,520 pilots since 2014
All classes average mid 30’s pilots
Conclusion: Disregard all of this, “DL has done the most “xyz” since “xyz” date”. They’ve done no more hiring than UA since 2014, only AA offers the “less young pilots hired” advantage by 1,500 #’s. There is a massive retirement wave ahead by historical standards for all carries. DL retiring the most by 2030, then UA until 2050, then DL finishes 2065 with most retirees, AA overtakes both by a fair margin. There is a ton for you to be excited about.
In fact, DL is the only carrier whose intended piloting numbers have been realized which is 1,000/yr for the foreseeable future and were achieved in 2024. Due to their commitment with Airbus products.
AA’s hiring had a huge wrench thrown in it to the point of frozen dates, though 2025 looks promising but will not be 2,000 due to Boeing/financial struggle.
UA’s 24’ hiring was not realized due to FAA audit and Boeing. And 2025 outlook is dismal (comparatively, still great), they wanted 2,000 and are planning now for 900 and likely hundred less (late 2025 classes can be canceled potentially as needs change).
WN is a solid career. Low cost model though is failing steadily and my bet is some LCC’s will be gone mid-career for you with WN being the last survivor of the low cost models and you’ll be flying 737’s forever (that’s rough).
Delta has huge leads within the industry in market cap/profits (globally), reputation, hard/soft product, performance metrics, dominates domestic U.S., less unionized workforce, WAY less debt than AA UA/post huge orderbook, growing fast in MCO/TPA, AUS, BOS, a huge NB order book, and solid WB order book that is not yet finished, I’d imagine about two more WB orders/options exercised or cheap/used purchases over next couple years as DL is primed for their intl. expansion now that domestic is take care of.
Couple that with thousands of retirements over the years. You will have an excellent career, the only doom/gloom to worry about is unforeseen black swans ahead that you have no control of. With Delta you’ll work/travel all over the world, be able to pick you flavor of airplane/schedule, and get paid to take naps. Aside from that you should be nothing but excited to start at any legacy, especially DL for your case.
Fortune favors the bold, wish you the very best
Just to play devil’s advocate, who’s to say SWA won’t ditch the LCC model and start to operate more like a legacy over the next 30years? Isn’t that what Elliott is trying to do? Southwest said they would never do assigned seats and redeyes and now here we are…
The Southwest today is not the Southwest tomorrow. The Delta today is not the Delta tomorrow. Either way it will be a good career. Any of the big 4 are solid careers. But just to keep everything in perspective…30 years is a long time and so much can happen. It would be more wiser to look at the financial/time cost of switching and see what that looks like over 30 years.
I personally was just in this situation…I’ve made similar posts on whether to leave SWA for Delta/United and I came to the conclusion that if I’m going to leave, it would have to be by next year at the latest. 2026 for me is way too late because I’ll be on year 4 pay going to year 5 in May of that year. The seniority/time loss and financial hit would put me so far behind in my career that it would have to be my absolute dream to justify switching. At the end of the day I value quality of life over what I fly. Just keep perspective. Figure out what you value and what matters to you. You can’t go wrong, but if you wait too long it can suck a lot more. If this was 2022/2023 and things were still moving I would say go for it in a heartbeat and don’t look back. Now that the industry has changed and there is potential global war and other instabilities in the world, I would proceed with more caution.
If it’s your dream to be at Delta though, go and don’t look back. If you’re chasing a WB, I would take a serious look at what you’re about to give up just to chase a plane.