Originally Posted by
Jetlikespeed
where is this narrative we will be smaller in 25 than 24? Is your assumption we are getting 0 airplanes in 2025? If so then yes that would be true
but Boeing is production has started again on the max. So saying we will not get any planes when we are still have 17 (as of Q3) are planned to come. Saying planes this year will be 0 seems awfully hyperbolic
Less than 7 aircraft deliveries by the start of Q2 seems like a fairly solid bet to me. We will retire 6 900 classics by then. And a 700 was written off. Due to an unfortunate meeting with a catering truck. That equals smaller in July of 2025 than 2024. IMO that is a given.
After that we are playing catch up. At the end of 2025 Boeing won’t even be within 30% of the 2024 production target that was never realized. 38 per month. They are saying 28 per month at best for 2025. You think we get 8 aircraft in the second 1/2 of 2025? I’d take the bet against you.
Past BA performance leads me to believe that 0 aircraft is a possibility. We are one BA black swan away from that. One issue with a massive supply chain or a troubled workforce and no airplanes for 2025. Not the best odds on that one but certainly far from impossible.
Whistleblower allegations are ongoing. Who knows what the impact of all that will be.