No one knows, not even EB.

PW inspections, yes.

CFM parts shortages, yes. The 2020-2022 flu compressed the overhaul cycles into one large bank due now, versus being spread over the past two. This is an industry wide problem.

^^ These two are a given but the solution is in place thanks to our MRO facilities and authorities with GE, RR AND PW.

Potential for a two front war, 50/50 at this point. This will result in initial demand destruction, suspension of Pacific flying completely, recalls to active duty for even retirees, conversion to CRAF and potenially SILS in some categories and domestic cargo in others. Think COVID, but munitions, parts and troops in the back instead of masks. Who knows how CRAF will use 5000 (my guess) airliners across the US market.

Aircraft deliveries would end. These facilities and materials assets would likely be converted to 80% war time footing. No one cares about our 223 and trash panda deliveries at this point.

^^ This is not a given, but rhetoric is flaring up. It could happen, maybe it wont. Maybe it will be another decade of "the decade of experiences."

How should management play this? Hire for the unknown and end up with such a surplus that SILS don't even make sense? Force the hand to furlough? Maybe flex summer up 4% on GS, and run a little hot? I surely don't know, neither does anyone here.

BTW, I LOL'd at the 7000 pilot airline concept during Covid. Delta was 7000ish in 2008, 110 NB pilots in LAX, SEA, DTW and MSP didnt even exist, and our NY flying was a fraction of what it is today. 7,000 was never gonna happen, not without a Ch. 11 likely followed by a Ch. 7. No I am not pro-management, but I do understand their lack of a commitment on this one. The data just isn't there.