This is why as a newbie to the business you have to ratchet back and take a really good look at the long view. Not casting shade at any one particular age group, because mine was just as guilty as any other, but it's really, really easy to get suckered into whatever version of SJS is currently the flavor of the month.

When I was a newb, and the earth was still cooling, I was chomping to get at any major. Guy I worked for took the time to sit me down (he worked for a famous major that evaporated overnight) and really laid out what to look out for any potential employer for the long term, and none of it was about where their bases were, new contracts or service, how many airplanes they have on order, or how shiny their new CEO is, because that all changes in an instant. Practically every airline changes their 5 year plan every 2 weeks.

The long and the short of it, you need to look at an operators "true" history to get a read on what they'll do, because once they get going, they rarely change. For practically all of the history of the industry, your best bet is to find a spot (which is usually the first spot offered) and ride it out. Yes, there are very, very brief interludes where there is some form portability, but if you are on the wrong side of it, you will be seriously bummed at the result. A lot of people talk about the "trunk" carriers hiring private pilots in the late 60s, but no one ever finishes the story about how nearly every one of them was furloughed, in some cases for a LONG time, in the early 70s after the energy crisis.

Ernie Gann said it best....defy "the numbers" at your own risk. And that was the 1940s. Nothing has changed in the game since then.