Originally Posted by
MrIncredible
I see the regionals hiring coming to almost a complete stop. With the big 3 only hiring for retirement, its gonna go back to the originals days where they only hired at most: 1000 pilots a year. And believe it or not, thats a lot. With Spirit furloughing pilots and possibly closing their doors, they pretty much have first dibs. You have Fedex Pilots also possibly being furloughed in the future, we'll see, but again. They also have first dibs. And with Air Wisconsin pilots will also have first dibs to the majors if they can get hired, Im sure another regional will pick them up. And then you have military pilots, who can skip the regionals completely and go staight to the majors.
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1,000 pilots a year?
The Big 3 are going to have about 2000 retirements each year for the next decade. Right now it's closer to 2500. Addin the next tier of major jobs and it's a couple hundred more.
No one has 'dibs' on a job. Are their resumes better by having Part 121 experience at NK, FX and to a smaller degree Air Wisconsin. But there are no 'dibs'.
Airline growth mirrors at, or slightly less then, GDP. That's another 900 +\- at the Big 3. Add in the next tier of 'destination' jobs and the annual demand and that's another 300+ pilots per year.
Seems like the long term demand looks more like 3,500 +/- pilots. Boeing's estimate is 6,000 a year for N. America.