Originally Posted by
rickair7777
Looking at it like a strategic board game from the AS perspective...
If they really want to solidify their critical mass in the US competitive market, and set themselves up for international growth...
Take 2-3 years to complete the big muscle movements related to HA, then move to acquire B6 with 1-2 years left of guaranteed favorable regulatory climate.
The current AS managers certainly have exhibited ambition, unprecedented ambition by AS historical standards. I'd guess that 2-3 years is sooner than ideal, but has the obvious advantage of essentially assured .gov rubber stamp. Also the longer they wait, the better the chances that B6 will merge with someone else. From where I sit in the cheap seats, B6 is next obvious logical move for agressive-ish expansion. Of course they could just sit back, consolidate the HA thing, and then grow organically according to whatever boeing's 787 delivery schedule ends up being. That would be more in keeping with their traditional fiscal conservatism. I guess that would depend on personal ambition, how much leash the board grants, and how big they think they need to be to safely bulwark against the big 4 (economy of scale does matter).
The supposed brother's uncle who knows the van driver in SDQ rumor was AS/B6 talked merger several years ago but couldnt come to agreement on upper mgmt details but had a loose plan where AS would merge with HA and meantime B6 would merge with NK. This would give both AS and B6 a few years to scale through smaller mergers and then combine forces down the road. Obviously this didnt work out for B6/NK, but it would have made sense given a broader plan of global scale with AS/HA/B6/NK all in the same mgmt team.