First, the LCC's are not liquidating. One is restructuring in bankruptcy, exactly like AA has done several times over the decades. The other is potentially loking for a mainline or LCC merger, like has been done repeatedly over the decades, nothing new there either.

Second, the whipsaw is definately going to happen, but not for another 4-8 years, dependng upon the carrier. Management knows that once the Boeing, Airbus and Pratt issues are resolved the floodgates at mainlines will open again. They'd be smart to overstaff a bit now while they can.

Third, PSA is not a 5,000 pilot company, and even putting 2500 on the street (do you have that many? I honestly haven't checked) just means the preferential interviews given to furloughs will move the majority of them to a mainline faster than the flows or AVIATE programs. Further, when the hiring picks up again, EVERY regional will again be hiring balls to the wall, and a bunch of experienced furloughed FO's with over 1,000 121 time make excellent direct entry captains.

Fourth, the scenario you describe ONLY works when there is limited or no hiring at the mainlines. It does not work when everybody is hiring at full speed.

Finally, AAL has always used "we're selling you," or "we're diversting you," or "we're shutting you down," as a wedge to push their agenda. If anything, the three will be merged into one, that's it.... for now. They may even grab a place like Silver in bankruptcy to restart Island service out of San Juan again. The we're selling you or shutting you down works great for them when they threaten to shut you down if you fight them on the wage snap backs.... You'll start hearing things like cost competative to retain current or additional flying too....