Originally Posted by
VacancyBid
I just don't see anyway the math supports that, other than a fluke in some growth years
For the next 5 years, retirements are 500-700 pilots. That is 3-4% of the current list. That's an attrition rate that would fit with a 25-30 year career. Just doesn't make sense that upgrade would consistently be available at 80-90% system seniority.
Well I’m just going to throw some made up numbers out, if we were single fleet like say SWA, there’s about 10-20% of the list that bypass upgrade and stay senior FOs. So instead of say 50/50 it’s more like sqy 60-70 % system seniority for junior captain . Now you add in widebody where there’s more FOs that captains, well there’s a lot of senior FOs on that which skews the number more. Now there are just more FOs than captains at United because of widebodies, but I would say 70-80% system seniority is where our true most junior captain would be. 80% of say 18,000 is 14,400. With no growth just retirement it would take 5-6 years . I think we are still on the up with deliveries .
Maybe someone that’s been here longer than me can say what the traditional system seniority was for most junior captain. But I’d guess 70-80% for first available isn’t far off