Before the end of the year, you will see $150 oil.
It is funny you posted this question. This morning I was looking through my last 50 post (the majority of them were about oil prices from Jan 08 to May 08) and it is just incredible to see the history of the oil prices talk on APC, and how little people's attitude has changed about oil prices.
Around Jan 1, 2008, the price of oil was about $98/barrel. My response to oil prices was that the price of oil is only going to go up and up and up long term. There was even a thread about where do you think oil prices will be by the end of the summer. (60-80, 80-100, 100-120, 120-140, 140+). Of course the majority of people said 60-80 and 80-100. (
http://www.airlinepilotforums.com/sh...ad.php?t=18717)
Very few people (myself included) said 120-140 and just a few more said 140+)
I also found the title of the threads interesting:
Oil Prices Peaked
Oil $100 a BBL
$105 barrel of oil
109 dollar oil!
Oil prices spiraling out of control again!!!
Oil tops $117/barrel, Continues to set new records daily
Oil up $10 in one week, pushes $130
Who's to blame for $4 gasoline
Oil marches past $130 a barrel
I even made a bet with someone about the price of oil at the end of summer (he said $60, I said about $130)
$150 a barrel oil will happen before the end of the year. $5 gas by this time next year.
I am more interested in when $200 oil will happen (gas $6-$7 a gallon). I feel this is around the tipping point where Americans (unlike some APC posters) will actually change their attitudes about the energy crisis. With $4 a gallon gas, you are seeing a slight rise in public transportation use, less SUV sales, more small car sales, and an ever so slight cut in the amount of gas American's consume. But for the majority of American's, they are doing things the same they were a few years ago.
$5 a gallon will see similar trends. More public transportation, less SUV's, more small cars, and another decrease in gas consumption. Still, the majority of American's will keep their old habits.
$6-$7 a gallon gas is where I truly think you will see effects on a big scale.
There are about 17 million cars sold each year in the US. In 2007, about 500,000 of those were hybrids (a measly 3%). I think you will see a huge increase in the number of hybrid/plug in hybrid/all electric cars sold in the next few years with $6-$7 a gallon gas. It just makes too much economic sense. The price difference between a gas powered and hybrid car was made up for when we hit $3 gas. Now any increases in gas prices only make these cars that much more financially attractive.
So when you do you think we will see $200/barrel oil?