Originally Posted by
InsideAnalyst
Exactly. The rich get richer, the poor get poorer. Those with capital right now can afford to buy things and take losses as needed.
That is not us. We do not have capital. We cannot afford to take additional losses. We also cannot compete on price with the larger carriers.
I am a retired Wall Street analyst who's making a second career out of flying jets. I have resisted creating an account for a while despite tracking this forum for almost 20 years. I've tried to stay out of it and just watch sentiment but the reality is this guys:
Our recent bankruptcy served one purpose and one purpose only and that was to liquidate/transfer equity away from the shareholders.
Even if we had managed to increase our revenue by double digit percentages (which is not going to happen with a few more big seats or a few SWA passengers coming over due to bag fees) and decrease our cash burn by double digit percentages, both of which are unlikely, our business model would still be broken.
That was before DeepSeek knocked US tech stocks down earlier this year revealing how our stock market was really not doing well at all and the "Magnificant" Seven stocks were the only thing holding it up.
That was before the Tariff war kicked off.
We were in a coffin, then those two recent economic events really put the last nails in it.
It is my (formerly) professional opinion that unless we are acquired or find a cash-rich merger partner, we will be on the street by Christmas. None of our bond-holders are going to risk throwing more money at us in this climate - they will sell us or liquidate.
If you do not have apps out right now because you plan to ride the ship down and then see what happens, I respect that. If you are not putting apps out because you think our odds of surviving the year are decent, I encourage you to crunch the numbers and reconsider. Worst case if you apply you might get an interview, you might then get a CJO, and then a class date. From what I hear, that process can take 8-12 months right now depending on the carrier. That should give you some good time to see what happens here and hopefully prove me wrong.
what exactly are we liquidating? The vast majority of our aircraft are leased. Even if we had a bunch to liquidate, seems that the markets have taken a turn to where that would yield significantly less than even before. Isn’t consolidation common in economic downturns? Something about synergies. And where would F9 get thousands of pilots to fly these planes overnight absent a merger? Maybe a bunch of 1500 eager CFIs but certainly no captains.
not sure if TC departure was voluntary or not, planned or not. Not sure if it’s even necessarily a good thing. I think if we see a permanent replacement for him, that’ll be an encouraging sign. If we keep this interim team, that may be a sign we’re winding down.