When we're visiting the classroom, I feel like BP (or whoever is there that day) is good at giving us the current planning numbers that are internally releasable as of that moment in time. The thing is though, conditions are constantly in flux so those numbers can and do change. Next month, heck, even next week the numbers could be higher or lower.

Let's just assume there is not a recession coming and no reduction in flying demand, and let's just assume that the public adjusts to our new offerings and we at least keep the pace or improve on our numbers. If that's the case, we do have retirements starting to ramp up in 2026 and especially into 2027. Also, a couple hundred pilots go out on medical each year with some of them to never return. And 3-5% will leave for another airline for any number of reasons that are right for them. Now consider that from CJO to the post-IOE pipeline takes 4-6 months and of course there are hundreds to get through the pipeline...so I could see the need for hiring to start ramping up sometime in 2026.

Economic recession and reduced flying demand? Boeing doesn't deliver on the Max 7? Then it's a different story.