There are 230 retirements in the next 12 months. The real retirement/medical out average age is around 62 so we can probably count on around 300+. That does not including anyone else who leaves for greener pastures as the legacy's resume hiring next year, just a guess but let's say 50. We need to add another 25 or so to account for those with an additional week of vacation.

Total new hires needed just to cover attrition without ANY growth is 400-500. We know they're going to add more red eye lines. For the past year I've seen 40+ unused reserves on the RCO in the big bases every day. Right now it's around 5-10, some days it's zero and we aren't even into the heavy summer schedule.

Six months ago with a recession on the horizon I'd have agreed with you regarding downgrades & maybe furloughs. We've been conditioned to view recessions as devastating to growth & hiring due to 9/11, housing crisis, & covid crisis' we all experienced but from where I sit 600 new hires next year is a pretty conservative # and I'd consider it the floor if we don't have another economic collapse.