Originally Posted by
coast in
Totally agree with your analysis. The problem UAL management has is, if you put five 750 mile radius circles around all 7 of UAL's hubs you end up with a big glaring hole in the Southeast (where DAL probably makes 50% of it's system wide profits). And if you transverse any of those 7 UAL hubs it becomes readily apparent that most are now bursting at the seams. UAL will go somewhere and I would argue the Southeast is its last frontier. But (and a big but) UAL probably wont step on DAL's toes and try and establish a true Southeast hub, but more likely a smaller regional hub in the periphery (FLA or nearby). 400 more Max's and 150+ A321's are coming and they will need a home, somewhere.
400 Max's and 150 321's minus all the retirements that are coming up. The 757's are already scheduled to go once we get enough XLR's. The original NG's are getting close to retirement age (oldest is 27 years). And the end state of the Bus Fleet is going to be all 321, roughly the same size that the 319/320 fleet size was at its peak.
So in 5 -10 years the "where to put all these planes" is going to be self correcting. Outside world events can make it happen even faster by parking planes and deferring orders.
Has there been growth? For sure. Will there be more? That's the plan. But its not like all the planes ordered are for growth only.