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Old 05-25-2008 | 03:17 PM
  #81  
Andy
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 5,213
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From: guppy CA
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Originally Posted by JetPiedmont
If I touched a nerve in you through my comments I appoligize.
I got over the United deathwatch threads long ago. I've seen far too many of them to bother me anymore. I just want to make sure that we're speaking factually correct numbers.
I let your $8M/day loss number slide, as I have no idea what the daily loss at United is currently running. I suspect that you don't either, but are making an educated guess. However, you're making that number appear as if it's $8M/day in cash. A portion of the quarterly/daily loss is composed of depreciating assets. Depreciating assets aren't a hit to the bottom line.
Also, there was another fare hike initiated yesterday by United (they've initiated most of the fare hikes lately) and matched by both American and Delta. With AMR and DAL matching, it's got a very good chance of sticking. http://cbs11tv.com/local/airfares.in....2.731606.html
All of the fare hikes will help, but will also result in decreased passenger traffic. AMR made a good decision by reducing capacity. United previously announced the same. All airlines (with the exception of Southwest) are losing money in the current environment. Likely on just about every single flight. The only way to reduce the bleeding is to trim the flight schedule. Hopefully United will do it in a prudent manner, such as dumping all of the PHX-LAX RJs and upguaging with less frequency (that's one route; there are plenty of others that could be upguaged with less frequency). I think that the airlines who upguage with less frequency will end up being in the best shape when we emerge from the current downturn.

It's going to be bloody; I expect to see as many carriers file chap 11 as did post-911. How many go ch 7 is the unknown. I suspect more than a couple will be out of business. We're also likely to see more pilots on furlough than any previous peak. Scary times for all; this isn't limited to United.
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