Originally Posted by
Andy
It's going to be bloody; I expect to see as many carriers file chap 11 as did post-911. How many go ch 7 is the unknown. I suspect more than a couple will be out of business. We're also likely to see more pilots on furlough than any previous peak. Scary times for all; this isn't limited to United.
There will be a big difference this time when airlines go into BK than right after 911. As many analysts have said, most of the fat has been trimmed and there isnt a whole lot of other directions to go this time. Lenders are also very aware of this and will be less likely to throw any money at an airlines if the outcome will inevitably be the same.....cant sustain the operation on losses. Oil keeps pounding airlines at the gas pump.
I would say the only real savior besides fair/fee hikes (which I dont think will be enough) is code share partners with a vested interest. United better hope Lufthansa is willing to cough up some cash and Delta better hope AF/KLM throws some money their way. Its about outlasting the other guys this time. This time carriers will be allowed to die.