Old 04-25-2025 | 07:04 AM
  #18  
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rickair7777
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From: Engines Turn or People Swim
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Originally Posted by ImSoSuss
You rushed to buy Chinese plastic crap from Walmart before the Tariffs? Panic much?
I did seriously consider rushing out to buy a new car we'll be needing (European, not Chinese). Didn't quite get around to pulling the trigger, so probably going to wait it out now. I actually prefer buying new-ish used cars, but that market has been driven up too, by the tariffs on the adjacent new market.

There's no way to pretend that large, sweeping tariffs will be inconsequential, otherwise the admin wouldn't have bothered with them in the first place. We basically have to hope he's able to quickly negotiate favorable adjustments to the old trade balance structure and then back away from the cliff.

The old structure included a variety of mechanisms which could be leveraged by other countries to protect *their* local industries while enjoying free-ish trade to the USA, hence the imbalance that got us here.

Separate debate is whether we should be protecting our low-skill labor from cheaper low-skill labor in developing countries.

Silver lining is that the majority of our trading partners need us more than we need them, and I'd estimate that a vast majority of our largest partners need us more.

China is a special case, while they also need us more to preserve their existing economy (which was already not so hot), Xi has coalesced enough autocratic power that he can probably get away with tanking their economy while he fights a public geopolitical battle with Trump. He might even manage to set their economy and trade relations on a completely different course long term, at least somewhat disconnected from the US. As somebody who buys a lot of car parts, I might actually enjoy not trading with China

Downside of fewer economic entanglements with China is that it's easier to have a war.
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