Originally Posted by rickair7777

Historical ALPA and arbitration precedent:

There WILL be CA WB fences.

There *probably* won't be FO WB fences.

There will not be NB fences.

There will not be base fences.

Fences will apply to planes on property, and also all firm orders which existed on one of two dates, we don't know which yet:
1. Merger close date (last Sep) OR
2. SLI effective date.


There's no fundamental law of nature which says that any of that *has* to go down that way, but that's the precedent and arbitrators who deviate from established precedent open themselves up to appeal/lawsuits, which isn't great for their reputation, They tend to play it safe.

If I wanted to do a thought experiment, guess you could imagine a scenario where someone could make a case that the islands are unique domicile situation, and *everything* based on the islands should be fenced, but the corollary of that the mainland gets fenced too, and anything that moves between (either direction) gets unfenced and is fair game. But that's pretty far out there.

Caveat: This all assumes arbitration. In *theory* the two MECs could agree to anything under the sun, before it gets to that. In reality they'd probably get lynched by their own people so they can be expected to dig in hard in their respective positions and let it go to arbitration.