Everyones perspective is objective and to those who won the lottery of course gambling is great.

The problem is that those who are considering this profession are facing a much different landscape than those who started even ten years ago. New pilots today have to deal with huge training and education costs in the face of lowering wages and opportunities. As such it isn't really all that accurate to reflect upon our personal experiences and must attempt to project expectations from this point forwards.

When taking the last 30 years into consideration and then extending the path this profession has taken over that time 30 to 40 years into the future it paints a harsh picture indeed. Some are prepared to sacrifice and perhaps even understand that they are against a loosing battle. To those people I say "good luck and best wishes". Others however are trying to analyze this profession by using the experiences of pilots who started 20 years ago and are anticipating having a similar return on their investment.

In the end it is important to prepare ones self by predetermining goals and expectations. If making a good living, having career security and enjoying a healthy home life is of importance then perhaps aviation is not the best path. However if a newbie is a confirmed bachelor, financially independent or is from an established airline family then maybe the chance is worth taking.

For most a flying career is little short of outright gambling. Effort and ability can only get you so far. The rest is determined by luck, contacts and how badly you are prepared to mess up your life to get there. In aviation a few will leave the table with a stack of chips but in the end the house always wins and the odds are getting longer everyday.

SkyHigh