Originally Posted by
Lincoln Osiris
My plan is wait it out. We have a difference of opinion on this. Your thinking is, financial trouble = ch7 no more airline. If that was the case AA, DL, UA, and SW would have been gone a long time ago. My thinking is either things will improve or another merger will happen. But to think Spirit will become the largest airline in US history to liquidate is a big stretch. That would be a huge hit to the market place and the government would likely step in prior to that step as the airline sector falls under infrastructure.
The entirety of the DOJ's argument in court was about seats in the market place. Well if spirit goes ch7 there is no guarantee any of those seats stay in the US as foreign subsidized carriers desperate for A/C will pay way above market value to get them. So it is likely none of those aircraft stay in the US at that point. If you were a senior pilot at US Airways, Northwest, or Continental do you think jumping ship back in the 2000's and starting all over again would have been a smart move? Me thinks not.
I look at things in a logical historical way. Others who have not been in this industry long prefer the dramatic unfounded speculative drama route.
Here is what you are missing. US Airways, Northwest, Continental all had valuable assets and a brand that wasn't hated by all of America. US Airways had CLT and PHL and over 300 working Airbuses and a profitable Shuttle Route. Northwest had MSP and DTW and Lucrative Pacific Routes and 747s to run those routes. Continental had Houston and EWR which made it attractive to United to fill in the South and NorthEast parts of the US. What does Spirit have? 2 Hangars? A fleet made up of airplanes that either can't fly, or are so upside down on, they can't even sell? An A320 simulator they sponsored in DFW with a partnership with AFG. Spirit has already sold off everything they own that had any value. The NEOs combined with the crushing debt will block any mergers or acquisitions. No one want's to take those two problems on. Now, thanks to the worst Scope language in the industry, a few of you might get lucky enough to be fragmented off to the airlines that do buy whatever pieces are left and sold by the creditors committee. And as far as congress goes......there isn't one Congressman or Senator that will lose 30 minutes of sleep if this airline goes under. It's not important to the infrastructure of American business, nor is it worth the Fed pumping money into to save. Spirit isn't just laughing stock of light night television, its one of the most hated public companies in America. Ben did this when he unapologetically shi!t in Americans mouth for over half a decade. Even Bob and then Ted couldn't right the ship and recover from the brand that he destroyed. I am also convinced that all of the Legacies, LCC's and their special interest groups are also actively advocating the demise of the ULCC's. Nothing would fix capacity and yields quicker than if the ULCC's went away. You guys got totally f*cked by the government when they blocked the JetBlue merger. Now that same government will watch this airline go away. No airline has ever made it when they started attempted to shrink by 20%, 40%, 50%. Selling the Pacific didn't save PanAm. Selling South America didn't save Eastern. You sound much more like a PanAm or Eastern pilot in January of 1991 than you do a US Air or Northwest Pilot in 2004. You wanna put your Mortgage, 401K, and kids college funds on the line for Spirit Airlines, you do you bro. But it seems most of the pilots who have seen whats about to happen, all turned in applications to Legacy carriers this past week for a reason. Best of luck.