Wanted to tag in on this just for some perspective on the AA side. I figured if your read this far into the thread, maybe someone can get some use out of this information.

I did a deep dive into our numbers. As of today, through the next 5 years (end of 2030) there are 3,886 mandatory retirements. the peak in next year, then is a slow decline through the end of the decade. i’ll post the numbers below. My buddy is a new hire mentor, and they got an email last week saying the company is looking to bring in an additional 600-900 by years end. what will put our total new hires this year at 1,200-1,500. Based on retirement numbers plus A/C growth, i expect that to continue next year.

2025 (today through year end) 431
2026: 819
2027: 734
2028: 677
2029: 645
2030: 580


As for A/C, the latest data I can see is from April, and it shows we have 123 planes slated for delivery in the next 3 years alone, with another 330 planes scheduled for delivery beyond 2028

Also, as of the last bid that just came out (we do 4 per year) UPG is right at 2 years, Wide Body out of NYC is hovering at 3. With so many retiring soon, mainly CA’s and wide body guys, I’d expect these numbers to still drop a bit lower.

This place is far from perfect, but i think our latest contract brings us on parallel with UA & DL (you could nitpick, as they have some things we don’t have, but we have some things they wish they had as well) and although I’m no fan of our management, in the last few months they’ve really started to put a strong emphasis on attracting premium customers and improving customer service. Who knew, the folks that pay the most need to be sought after lol

yes, we have debt, that’s also because we did a complete re-fleeting long before United and Delta did, and that debt is actually relatedly cheap given that those planes were bought before inflation pricing and interest rate skyrocketed post Covid. Additionally, due to a young fleet, there are no airplanes being retired for at least the end of the decade. every jet that gets delivered is pure growth.

Good luck guys. I love when we get Spirit guys over here at AA, they are an AWESOME group of dudes, and bring some great knowledge of QOL rules for their contract that we need to bring to our next section 6.