Originally Posted by
maniac28
Oh! That must have just happened not long ago then. Well, there you have it. I do know that there are 300 in the pool at SWA. Not sure how many are left with the other 3 hiring like they are. I wouldn't have hung around and waited for SWA. Not with how fast the other 3 are moving. Especially UA and AA.
I know its hard but you want to make a move as soon as you can. Just for the sake of seniority. I think you'll accrue seniority the fastest at AA. I think UA is a close second and DL is 3rd right now. SWA is distant last. Between AA and UA you want to pick the one that is at home or has the closest commute. I heard DL can end up with a long upgrade time but if you live in a DL base then go for it. But find out if that's true or not. AA is faster only because they are retiring more than UA.
Delta’s forecasting around 1,000-1,500/yr or more depending on deliveries. Supply chain woes could not be worse with the 35K’s being delayed by a year, 321NEO seats uncertified, and the x100 7M10’s being uncertified.. as well as 220/717’s having some of their own issues.
Retirements between United and Delta are exactly the same over the next 30 years with United having the lead at first. Difference in retirements are marginal at best and will not be the reason for any long upgrade time.. the growth of the pilot group will play the largest factor. American has the notable retirement advantage between the three.
The rumor is the flood gates will open late 25’ or Q1 2026 due to Delta delaying hiring to meet record profits for its centennial. Meaning whatever classes they're delaying in 25’ should be added onto 26’s hiring needs. There’s also the soft confirmed x60-70 787-10 order expected EOY per JonNYC + the 20 A350 options being exercised. If hiring goals are met annually (7-8% system seniority a year) upgrade times will likely fall in the ~2-4 yr realm for the 717, 220, and 73N, 320 in that order.
When the 763’s get a 787 (or 330) replacement it’ll ultimately put the “WB-paying fleet” above the 220+ count mark by the end of deliveries creating massive movement. Lots of opportunity on the horizon. The “doom & gloom” rumor of 15+ years for an upgrade was nonsense at best - made no sense even with published retirements and zero growth that could easily be seen via WidgetSeniority.