Originally Posted by
JohnnyBekkestad
There is no pilot shortage any more anywhere in the world. EASA is a pay2fly scheme, hiring is down in the US. And Middle East, Australia and Asia are not hiring as before.
Secondly,
IATA apparently doesn't agree with you. Likely they are looking at long-term, there's usually a shortage somewhere and there are forecasts for significant air travel growth in certain parts of the world (the parts that don't have have a GA pilot pool).
Originally Posted by
JohnnyBekkestad
I’m really just trying to understand what the forced medical outs will be in case we enforce much stricter medical standards. My bet is that a whole lot of Americans will loose their medicals in the low to mid 50s.
We really need to understand what is required by EASA, Chinese and Japanese medical examiners. We do NOT want that in the US. Try to get a medical in Japan with a BMI over 30. I’ve been told by doctors that I will never have a BMI under 30 it’s just the way my body is built.
I don't think IATA cares much. But the US airlines do care and they will certainly intervene with IATA/ICAO when it comes time to make the rules. They don't want staffing issues due to a step change in medical standards, and they don't want to pay for the LTD.
Absolute worst case, the US simply won't apply a hypothetical extreme ICAO standard to domestic ops. In that case international flying would be doen by those who can meet the higher standard. I'd expect bilat agreements with Mexico/Canada and maybe other countries in the Americas.
But I'm not concerned, Money talks, safety theater walks.
Also when it comes to medical standards, ICAO has always leaned towards lowest common denominator, not forcing astronaut standards on countries that don't want it.