Originally Posted by
Ripinpeace
No A35K is replacing a 767. 35K’s will release 359’s for more growth. The 764’s are not retiring anytime soon.
7M10 expected to be certified in 2026. When it does, Delta has proven it can ramp up hiring instantly to meet needs. There will be a ton of growth here.
If you think they’re going to retire a 757 for every A321N that arrives then you’re correct - but they won’t. The 757’s will last into mid 2030’s.
Airbus has been able to double the production capacity of the 220. This fleet is pure growth until 717’s are parked (no time soon).
The 20 options would be pure growth - which is was the original 20 35K’s are.. pure growth. The 35K will also return DL to Singapore, India, middle-east, etc. and increasing capacity on SYD, JNB, ICN, LHR.. allowing a lot of 359’s to deployed elsewhere when those come.
A 50-60 787-10 order plus option will replace the 763’s and options for growth. This will cause massive growth in the WB paying fleet + capacity increase. Similar to how much of UA’s 787 order is majority replacement - as 2026 is the last year until United begins to retire the 767’s and older 777’s.
I think this is a wildly optimistic take. I think many things here are conjecture at best.
I have been told several times by multiple 767 sim instructors the -400 will not last much longer than the -300.
if a 350-1000 replaces a -900, which replaces a 764, which replaces a 763, which gets parked, isn’t that the same as the 35k replacing a 767.
the idea that aircraft we have not even ordered yet are already earmarked as “pure growth” is a funny concept. “We have not even decided if we will buy these, but if we do there is no way we use them to replace our 30 year old, outdated 767s”
737 pilots need specific MAX training. No line pilots have even started receiving this yet. That does not happen overnight.
I don’t know a ton about UA, but I know they are forecasting to hire 2,000 next year, that doesn’t sound like hiring for mostly replacements to me. It definitely seems like they are more growth focused than us.
I’m glad we have optimists, but I’m not seeing it. Time will tell.