Originally Posted by
saturn
Well please consider: The oldest 319 hits 30 years old in 2029, and the youngest in 2033. Our younger batch 320s (Ships 3251-3278) will hit 30 years old between 2027-2033.
All 737-800s hit 30yrs old between 2027-2032, with the exception of the 6 ex-GOL. About 30 752s can make it to 2035 if they fly 34 years.
It was as if you were leaking some new development, but the expected and normal retirement timeframe for the 319/320s has always been the early 2030s as they come up for heavy checks at 30/34 year mark. Some jets can go through checks to 34 years to mass retire with the newer builds at 30yrs (see 757).
As for replacements, we rarely order new jets >5yrs out. The RFP for new NBs into the 2030s will need to cover 85 319/320s, 71 737-800s (likely all 77), 80 717s, ~60 752s, 16 753s. Thats 300+ jets. Many of our 220s/321neos will be here concurrently, to trickle out older 320s & 757s, and add growth. Who knows how many MAX aircraft we see by 2030 at this rate. There will need to be another big NB order to cover deliveries in the 2030-35 timeframe, likely with high numbers being taken per year. SAQ airport jets are niche, and any MAX8 would surely be evaluated as part of a much larger order. There's not much to choose from amongst the new gen products. (MAX8, 319/20neo, A221/3).
Welllllll... While the
oldest 319 is a 1999 delivery, that's only
2 of them. 7 more in 2000. Then 13 in '01, 22 in '02, and 13 in '03. So 48 of the 57 are
at most 24 years old. 84% of them have at least a decade of life left in them, and
every single one is getting CPDLC, Wx Radars, new FMS, Screens, and more. That hardware has been bought, paid for, and delivered. It's siting in crates in Tech Ops today.
319's ain't going
anywhere for the foreseeable future. Full stop. And waaaaaaaay newer than almost the entire 75 fleet, the oldest of which is a 1990 delivery (as of my last check, which may be superseded recently).