Originally Posted by
Hotel Kilo
According to my old meteorology text book, a rapidly developing Thunderstorm can grow vertically upwards of 2000 ft/min if conditions are right. Assuming they were cruising at around .8 ish mach, that's ~8 miles a minute, for every 8 miles across ground, the storm would grow 2000 ft or so. So if they were painting red out there at say 60nm, by the time they got to the cell, it would be a little under 8 minutes. That would give a rapidly intensifying cell time to grow roughly 16,000 ft (we know they will top off at some point, usually in the 40s).
I hate to monday morning quarterback, but it's usually best to avoid these things laterally. Looking at the radar from that time there was plenty of clear air to the north of this cell.
Absolutely agree. The airplane was a Neo too, so that airplane has the best, brightest LED screens available for that fleet, and very, very good radar. For the life of me, I cannot fathom how they did not see this cell on their radar.
Many years ago I was riding the jumpseat of an AA A300 from JFK to MIA - at night. Abeam about JAX on an AR route, all hell suddenly broke loose as this crew did pretty much the exact same thing while cruising along without a care in the world, all of us with trays in our laps. Lasted maybe 45 seconds, then out the other side 2000 feet higher than when we stumbled in. Severe turbulence, lightning, hail, and the thickest St. Elmo's fire I've ever seen flashing across the windshield. FO did a good job handling that mess. Total mayhem in the back, but no injuries thankfully.
Afterward, when they checked their radar, it turned out that the captain didn't even have his side on, and the FO's side was on but the tilt was set at maybe 7 degrees up, therefore scanning above the cell.
Totally avoidable, really.
I sort of wonder if the pilots on this flight may have mismanaged the radar. Just a thought.