Originally Posted by
Ripinpeace
The second 737MAX, lay flat 321’s, 35K’s, and new expected WB order EOY all quit being delayed way past scheduled.. movement and hiring will be a solid 2-5 years to upgrade depending on BES..
The question is when. The days of anything near 10+ yr upgrades are long gone.. At the moment
It will always be based on need to hire. Poor financial performance will stall hiring and stagnate movement. Furloughs will build in long upgrades. Conversely mass early outs will create need and fast upgrades. Hopefully we don't see ethier again anytime soon. Replacement plus 2.5% growth would be about 950 per year and gradually increase. If 1st opportunity to upgrade is 80% seniority, then it will take about 4 years. Many will wait for better seniority and normal upgrades will be about 6+ years.