Originally Posted by
RippinClapBombs
Yeah idk, I’ve always been a pure numbers guy. I doubt anyone you asked made an effort to do some research before giving an honest answer. I’m showing 50/122 BOS CA’s retiring in 5y (40%)—91/122 retiring in 10y (75%). The upgrade times should theoretically be less than 5 years if hired today.
Jr. upgrade times at AA should remain around 2.5y for at least a few more years due to mandatory retirements and A/C orders. BOS is a senior base—a 5y NB upgrade time is very senior at AA. Every other base—including PHX Airbus—has current upgrade times under 4 years.
If you're a pure numbers guy you'd know we've hired like 6,000 pilots since that junior BOS CA was hired. And to get to that level you're looking at around 15 years of retirements.
In no way shape or form is a 5 year NB CA senior at AA.
Originally Posted by
CaptKnots
You’re probably right… most people seem to generalize and not have the full data during small talk at the gate. But that’s helpful… 5 years is faster than expected
Keep in mind AA has hired a boatload of pilots in the past five years, with thousands retiring between when that Jr BOS CA was hired and today.
That CA is around 50% on the seniority list (8000/16000) and it would take you around 15 years to reach that level if hired today. That 12-15 upgrade into BOS isn't that far off. By 2040 AA will have retired 8000 pilots, so if hired in Jan 2026 you'd reach 50% at age 51.
Of course this assumes little relative growth over that time frame, so take it or leave it.