Originally Posted by
VanillaNutTaps
You’re right that history rhymes, but it doesn’t repeat on cue. Every cycle has its own drivers. Comparing today’s setup to 1929 or the GFC ignores structural differences: massive liquidity, AI-led productivity gains, reshoring of supply chains, and a U.S. economy that keeps surprising to the upside.
Calling crypto a Ponzi is lazy. Unlike 2000-era dot-coms with no revenue, blockchain infrastructure is being integrated into payments, custody, and settlement. The players aren’t just “retail exit liquidity”—BlackRock, Fidelity, and sovereign wealth funds don’t buy “dog****” to get dumped on.
As for “this time isn’t different”—it actually is. Every major bull run looked unsustainable in the moment. People said the same at S&P 1,500, at 3,000, and at 4,500. Now they’ll say it again at 6,000 on the way to 8,000.
The real risk isn’t that markets collapse tomorrow. The real risk is being too bearish and missing the gains while waiting for the crash that never comes.
When the economy eventually corrects, one thing is certain: United, Delta, and the rest will do what they must to capitalize on it. Wishing you the best on your future returns—cheers!
I'm afraid that's incorrect.
It's about debt and growth. Once houses and cars crash we'll be in deflation. Ai has no gains. It's a money incinerator. This is kinda my point. Yes the catalyst is different, but it's still the banking system not loaning money to broke people.
If you actually go look you'll see it's all artificial and based on the easy money that's over.
Reshoring has been going on since 2018 and will take a decade.
The economy hasn't suprised anyone who's been watching it...
That's my point people are expecting doom and will fomo into the crash after the next correction because they believe what you're saying.
Block chain makes no money and is literally free to make your own.
It's a hash signed spreadsheet built on the same liquidity pump that's fueling everything else.
I own plenty. It's all a scam. Tokenization of securities will happen in a decade or so, but that's all internal.
Visa and mastercard handle more settlements and faster individually. No business wants to hold monopoly money that fluctuates. No customer wants to deal with returns. I have a chase reserve for a reason. Customer service and no liability
Banks don't own crypto. They custody it for suckers, but they all think it's a scam too. Mstr is a levered ponzi by a noted con man and people think he's God...
That was a great buy in 2020 when he announced his plan. Pure insanity.
The real world runs on debt I'm afraid, and crypto is like a gambling token at a casino. If the casino goes bust. You're boned. Collateralized Stablecoins notwithstanding.
Crypto is used literally nowhere except for a few libertarians. El Salvador didn't even use it it was all propaganda.
This is just like nfts, quantum computing, metaverse, beanie babies etc. All pump and dump. The real value comes later with the ashes.
In fact the railroad bubbles popped from wildcat banking and unregulated securities if you like the history Rhymes idea.
I've been calling for a top near 7000- 8000 for five years because I watched em dump the money in.
That's how I paid for my jet.
You're agreeing with me, but don't like I'm telling you it's ending in approx 6ish months. I get it. Not trying to be a dick.
No. The real risk is it crashes tomorrow. Black swan aside, much higher, and right when people feel amazing 80% and the wealth effect is over. We're 5 million jobs below our pre covid trend. 🤷
To you as well. I'm not calling for the end of the world, but people will be crushed.
End of the debt cycle. The alternative is worse..
Trust me.