Originally Posted by
Washout
I'm afraid that's incorrect.
It's about debt and growth. Once houses and cars crash we'll be in deflation. Ai has no gains. It's a money incinerator. This is kinda my point. Yes the catalyst is different, but it's still the banking system not loaning money to broke people.
If you actually go look you'll see it's all artificial and based on the easy money that's over.
Reshoring has been going on since 2018 and will take a decade.
The economy hasn't suprised anyone who's been watching it...
That's my point people are expecting doom and will fomo into the crash after the next correction because they believe what you're saying.
Block chain makes no money and is literally free to make your own.
It's a hash signed spreadsheet built on the same liquidity pump that's fueling everything else.
I own plenty. It's all a scam. Tokenization of securities will happen in a decade or so, but that's all internal.
Visa and mastercard handle more settlements and faster individually. No business wants to hold monopoly money that fluctuates. No customer wants to deal with returns. I have a chase reserve for a reason. Customer service and no liability
Banks don't own crypto. They custody it for suckers, but they all think it's a scam too. Mstr is a levered ponzi by a noted con man and people think he's God...
That was a great buy in 2020 when he announced his plan. Pure insanity.
The real world runs on debt I'm afraid, and crypto is like a gambling token at a casino. If the casino goes bust. You're boned. Collateralized Stablecoins notwithstanding.
Crypto is used literally nowhere except for a few libertarians. El Salvador didn't even use it it was all propaganda.
This is just like nfts, quantum computing, metaverse, beanie babies etc. All pump and dump. The real value comes later with the ashes.
In fact the railroad bubbles popped from wildcat banking and unregulated securities if you like the history Rhymes idea.
I've been calling for a top near 7000- 8000 for five years because I watched em dump the money in.
That's how I paid for my jet.
You're agreeing with me, but don't like I'm telling you it's ending in approx 6ish months. I get it. Not trying to be a dick.
No. The real risk is it crashes tomorrow. Black swan aside, much higher, and right when people feel amazing 80% and the wealth effect is over. We're 5 million jobs below our pre covid trend. 🤷
To you as well. I'm not calling for the end of the world, but people will be crushed.
End of the debt cycle. The alternative is worse..
Trust me.
I hear you, but I think you’re overstating the “everything is fake, it’s all going to zero” case. Yes, debt cycles matter, and yes, when credit tightens you get pain. But innovation and productivity gains do eventually change the slope of the curve—whether it was railroads, the internet, or AI. Each had a speculative phase, but dismissing them entirely as “scams” overlooks how real adoption quietly compounds beneath the noise.
Crypto is messy, I’ll give you that. But comparing it to beanie babies skips over the infrastructure being built—settlements, tokenization, cross-border transfers—things that aren’t sexy but will eventually cut costs and improve efficiency. Visa and Mastercard won’t disappear, but they may well integrate blockchain rails the same way they integrated the internet.
On the macro side, I agree the cycle’s maturing and a correction is inevitable, but a hard deflationary spiral ignores the trillions in fiscal spending and industrial policy that didn’t exist in previous cycles. Reshoring, energy buildout, and AI capex aren’t instant growth levers, but they’re not irrelevant either.
So yes, maybe 6–12 months brings volatility. Maybe it’s ugly. But if the bet is “we crash 80% and nothing new has lasting value,” history hasn’t borne that out. The ashes usually become the foundation.
Thanks for the discussion, now I’m off to dreaming of butterflies and unicorns. Cheers!
