Originally Posted by
VanillaNutTaps
I hear you, but I think you’re overstating the “everything is fake, it’s all going to zero” case. Yes, debt cycles matter, and yes, when credit tightens you get pain. But innovation and productivity gains do eventually change the slope of the curve—whether it was railroads, the internet, or AI. Each had a speculative phase, but dismissing them entirely as “scams” overlooks how real adoption quietly compounds beneath the noise.
Crypto is messy, I’ll give you that. But comparing it to beanie babies skips over the infrastructure being built—settlements, tokenization, cross-border transfers—things that aren’t sexy but will eventually cut costs and improve efficiency. Visa and Mastercard won’t disappear, but they may well integrate blockchain rails the same way they integrated the internet.
On the macro side, I agree the cycle’s maturing and a correction is inevitable, but a hard deflationary spiral ignores the trillions in fiscal spending and industrial policy that didn’t exist in previous cycles. Reshoring, energy buildout, and AI capex aren’t instant growth levers, but they’re not irrelevant either.
So yes, maybe 6–12 months brings volatility. Maybe it’s ugly. But if the bet is “we crash 80% and nothing new has lasting value,” history hasn’t borne that out. The ashes usually become the foundation.
Thanks for the discussion, now I’m off to dreaming of butterflies and unicorns. Cheers!
It's not going to "zero. It's mean reverting. There is no growth. The rest of the world is already in deflation. Especially China. 5 years of money printing 1600%+ debt to gdp.
Credit rates this high are equivalent to 16% in 1981. I don't think you understand the amount of debt riding on rehypothicated debt.
Russia has high gdp. Bombs don't create growth, raising prices increases gdp on an individual basis, but hurts economies of scale.
The feedback loops are now working backwards.
But those things need to make money for growth. They are burning billions a month and Agi isn't coming tomorrow.
There is no crypto adoption. It's an illiquid ponzi scheme that is firewalled from the banking system for a reason. In fact the more stablecoins created, the more treasuries required entrenching the dollar further. Follow the money. It's a scam.
Tokenization is the only thing being persued and it's a decade away.
Blockchain is slow and costly. We have cheaper, faster and safer databases in use. Just wait for nat gas to rip higher as shale gas comes offline due to low oil prices. Then electricity will skyrocket and bankrupt the miners.
Fednow, zelle, swiftgpi, UK fast pay, etc. All these already exist and dwarf crypto. There is no benefit. It's a sales job. Crypto isn't credit. I get points/cashback etc. Crypto doesn't do that and if the technology is important why did everyone skip it for a better alternative. This isn't new. 🤷
Umm. It's monetary deflation. We've been below our 5.25% monetary growth rate since housing peaked in 2022... That's why it peaked. It's not a mystery.
The bubble blew in 2020. The temporary money flood is over. Now you're seeing the world go broke and people flood into "hedges because they fear stagflation (which is currently present), but afterwards, deflation.
This is the coffin corner. People are terrified of overspeeding, but we're gonna stall.
Yes, that's exactly what the tariffs are designed to do. Blow up the bubbles and refinance the debt at zero percent. We get to bail out our allies and move supply chains. We did this after WW2 except in reverse. This is a reverse Marshall plan essentially.
Cheers