Originally Posted by Washout

It's not going to "zero. It's mean reverting. There is no growth. The rest of the world is already in deflation. Especially China. 5 years of money printing 1600%+ debt to gdp.

Credit rates this high are equivalent to 16% in 1981. I don't think you understand the amount of debt riding on rehypothicated debt.

Russia has high gdp. Bombs don't create growth, raising prices increases gdp on an individual basis, but hurts economies of scale.

The feedback loops are now working backwards.

But those things need to make money for growth. They are burning billions a month and Agi isn't coming tomorrow.

There is no crypto adoption. It's an illiquid ponzi scheme that is firewalled from the banking system for a reason. In fact the more stablecoins created, the more treasuries required entrenching the dollar further. Follow the money. It's a scam.

Tokenization is the only thing being persued and it's a decade away.

Blockchain is slow and costly. We have cheaper, faster and safer databases in use. Just wait for nat gas to rip higher as shale gas comes offline due to low oil prices. Then electricity will skyrocket and bankrupt the miners.

Fednow, zelle, swiftgpi, UK fast pay, etc. All these already exist and dwarf crypto. There is no benefit. It's a sales job. Crypto isn't credit. I get points/cashback etc. Crypto doesn't do that and if the technology is important why did everyone skip it for a better alternative. This isn't new. 🤷
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Umm. It's monetary deflation. We've been below our 5.25% monetary growth rate since housing peaked in 2022... That's why it peaked. It's not a mystery.

The bubble blew in 2020. The temporary money flood is over. Now you're seeing the world go broke and people flood into "hedges because they fear stagflation (which is currently present), but afterwards, deflation.

This is the coffin corner. People are terrified of overspeeding, but we're gonna stall.

Yes, that's exactly what the tariffs are designed to do. Blow up the bubbles and refinance the debt at zero percent. We get to bail out our allies and move supply chains. We did this after WW2 except in reverse. This is a reverse Marshall plan essentially.

Cheers
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