But that's the thing, there's no such thing as no black swans. Since the profession exists, every generation of pilots had endured them. Wars, recessions, mergers, bankruptcies, or just one bad new CEO making one bad decision/investment away from economic disaster. We got guys hired in the 80's/90's with good enough "timing" to avoid furloughs in the 2000's but they still lost pensions, took pay cuts, endured concessionary contracts, endured seniority stagnation and they're by your definition "lucky". I just don't think it's fair to assume anyone is going to have a great career until the day they punch out and hang their hat.