Something to keep in mind as well....

https://www.fapa.aero/pilot-hiring-history

Go back a few years and take a look at the number of pilots hired just since 2021 i.e. post-COVID. Just for kicks... United Airlines alone has hired over 8200 pilots in the last 4 years. Still think you'll upgrade quickly? In the same timeframe, Southwest hired 3500 pilots.

Another question I'd be asking myself... what percentage of those pilots hired in the last 4 years are sporting their first successful mustache? Think of the effect of those young mustached 25 year olds on your career progression.

Then take the scale back to pre COVID and check out how many were hired pre-COVID.

Practical advice... go where you get hired first and drive to work. Don't commute. Don't count on upgrades - it's a very good life being an FO at either place, but you're getting hired at the back end of the wave.