Originally Posted by
JackTheTipper
Growth in ASMs, or growth in pilots? I had only ever seen/heard attrition only, which is what was said to us at RTAG. I hope you are correct.
I'm not the only to hear some things, but I've had several different conversations with persons in a position to officially know something more than any of us, and have also personally heard official comments in an official large group event, all of which aligns with what was also described of by a pilot attending an internal Velvet recently which leads me to this conclusion. Whether the management person(s) were accurate may be a fair question, but these things were 100% said by relatively senior 4th floor types. These pieces of evidence are
all consistent with one another. In other words, multiple sources all say the same thing...
They felt they got burned last year when they put out the "1000 in 2025" number only to stop hiring at about 500 for other reasons. Now, they are gun-shy about overpromising and underdelivering. So they put out the official "public" info as "hiring for attrition", including at the industry conferences like RTAG. I wish they also said the next part, but the key is
that is a floor. A bare minimum which will be hired. They fully expect to hire something more than that.
Now, add to that the data points in the Velvet and the Q3 comments about growth. They had plans to 'rebuild' the international network post-covid this year, but for various reasons did not (deliveries, supply chain. tarrifs/unceartainty, etc). For 2026, they are projecting 3-4% growth. They absolutely cannot
do that unless they
hire pilots well above attrition. 3% would be require hiring about 1000 pilots, and 4% would mean about 1200. That part is not conjecture. That's math.
Now, whether you believe the Flight Ops upper management types were telling the truth (why would they lie to an internal audience?), or whether economic conditions will actually allow for 3-4% growth is maybe up for debate, but the underlying facts are still facts. Take that for what you will. I'm somewhat of a skeptic, but am starting to believe that the pieces are in place to expect that we will hire 1000+, barring some unforeseen/interfering factor. And none of that addresses the fact industry peers are hiring like it's the Covid recovery still...