Originally Posted by
FangsF15
Yeah, 96 NB A's and 39 W A's is not nothing, especially if they actually backfill (despite the statement about base-swap only backfill). Given the drought in NB A's over the last 9 months, I suspect NB A will be solidly in the 70's%. WB A will be in line at 21-22%, or thereabouts. The fact that the positions are spread out amongst so many different BES will keep surprises to a minimum.
As expected, the Dec AE will be rather large by any comparison, especially on the NB B side for NH spots. That will be the one to watch, IMO.
Originally Posted by
FangsF15
...
Or, were you asking about this particular AE? In which case my roulette chips are on 12000 WB B (BOS 330), and 13,000 NB A (SLC 220).
Mid Bid Nov AE
WB A 395X 22.9% (NYC 765,
barely. SEA 330 very close)
WB B 126XX 73.3% (BOS 330 - big cluster in the 12's)
NB A 124XX 71.9% (SEA 220 - also a big cluster in the 12's)
Really, the only thing that went more senior was NB A. But I think everyone expected that to some degree. But if those %'s hold, it will be the first time in forever that NBA went senior to WB B, even though WB B is
well within it's trending margin. Definitely an anomoly for NB A given the long drought.
Will be interesting to see if the general trend holds where the final is slightly senior to the mid bid.