Originally Posted by
CrazyEight
One thing is for sure, travel is going to correct downward. 42% of the US doesn't have savings, 12% are on food stamps, 33% rely upon government assistance in some form, 40% only have social security, record household debt, record auto loans and record auto loan default rates. Government employees making six figures plus with 500k-800k+ mortgages in expensive areas are now smoking through savings. When the dust settles from this, post-Covid revenge travel will be over. The entitlement mindset of experiences vs financial security will be buried in hungry and restless nights of no sleep. Sure, the government has a few weeks to get it together before Thanksgiving, but the underlying issue of record deficits, massive asset bubbles in real estate and the stonk market have not yet reared their heads, not even close.
My .02, we are on the cusp of a reality check. I see contractors taking over ATC and significant reductions at the airlines, it wont be a good ten year run. I am leaving geopolitical instabilities out of it because they are going to be worse.
A 40 hour work week at any job should be above the poverty line? $15/hour x 40 x 52 = $31,200/year. That's with no time off. A reliable used car is $7500 The cheapest 2 bedroom apt is $1200/ month in most metros, some way more. Food, gas, phone with a plan, anything else and you get to that number quickly. It's an affordability crisis. Lower end jobs (the meat of the economy) don't compensate enough to make a living wage and lenders know it. Government assistance is necessary to stabilize the economy as long as there are predatory employers and lenders (which will always be the case) looking to exploit the poorly educated and it is working it's way up to people with education as automation and AI advance. This will be inevitable. The few people willing to accept this level of lifestyle are the new immigrants who are now being limited and removed. The economic foundation is the labor force and it is not in good shape. Should a household of 3 be sustainable on minimum wage is the question.