Originally Posted by Turbosina

Latest I've heard is that we are apparently 15% overstaffed on the 737. So my guess here is that a lot of these new deliveries are going to be replacements for aircraft to be retired, rather than net-new adds.

The CRU was quite clear to me: if you want a NBCA upgrade, or snag a WBFO seat, do it now, because this will take care of most of our 2026 flying needs. I think we should take that statement at face value. I think they meant exactly what they said in that CRU.

In the bigger picture, though, a 3.5 year upgrade at 75% system seniority is still pretty darn fast. I believe AA is a bit faster at the moment. Not sure about DAL, and both AS/HAL and SWA are stagnant with much longer upgrade times.

I'm surprised by how senior WBFO is going. Although the most junior WBFO is a 134XX number (about 73% system seniority, a 2022 hire), that's an outlier in just one base -- there are just three EWR 777FOs with seniority numbers in the 13XXX range. Everywhere else, it's in the 8000 range, which is 44% system seniority!! (What is that -- maybe a 2016 hire or so?)