Originally Posted by
METO Guido
As year 4 comes in range, 4 things occur to me regards the special operation to date: 1. The enemy has yet to show unambiguous signs of domestic collapse; institutionally, economically or militarily. 2. Unlike the disastrous 10 year Soviet/Afghan war of ‘79 - ‘89 they’re killing their own kind now. Restoration of the pre invasion border out of the question. 3. The Swede minister says it plain. Cost/benefit analysis makes indefinite support of Ukraine at the present burn rates unsustainable. 4. No serious expectation exists that Ukraine will ever concede occupied territory or excuse what Russians have done to seize it. Who would?
Realpolitik:
Realpolitik is a political approach based on practical and pragmatic concerns, such as national interest and power, rather than on ideology, morality, or ethics
. It involves making decisions based on circumstances and power dynamics, often leading to compromise and a realistic assessment of what is achievable, even if it means setting aside ideals. This concept, popularized in 19th-century Germany, emphasizes national interest as the guiding principle for statecraft and diplomacy.
https://www.politico.eu/article/volo...ption-scandal/
Ukraine is in trouble on numerous fronts.
with Russia they have developed drone warfare to the point that the defender has enormous advantages. But once territory is taken - even at ruinous cost in casualties - retaking it will be just as difficult. Russia barely has the manpower to advance in these circumstances and their manpower is far greater than that of Ukraine. Ukraine actually regaining their lost territory through continued war is largely a pipe dream.
Economics is also a disaster. They were one of the poorest countries in Europe at the start, and four years of war have left them poorer yet. And Europe as a whole has been affected by the sanctions, driving up energy and other costs, rendering even many of the states now claiming to support Ukraine unwilling or unable to provide additional funding.
Politically, Zelensky is in trouble. The pay-for-play corruption that has long underpinned business in Ukraine is coming out in the open and coming perilously close to Zelensky. On the international level, many countries neighboring Ukraine and Russia are seeing the writing on the wall, and preparing politically for dealing with Russia which - after all - is the largest country on Earth, after the current unpleasantness is resolved. You can see it in Hungary, Slovakia, Czechia, and even in the surge of populism in Western Europe.
Currently, all the trends, economic, political, and on the battlefield are going against Ukraine. It is difficult to see a path for improvement, barring the use of nukes or US boots on the ground, which seems very unlikely politically.