Originally Posted by
trip
They need 25 years to replace all the men they've lost in the last 4, that's if the women get busy. No-way are they pushing into NATO after this huge debacle.
Unfortunately I am commenting from my phone. So it will have typos, no editing to speak of, and lack expansion of basic concepts.
1. I haven't read the article, but my assumption is it c
onflate aspirational plans with operational plans.
2. Russia is going through a millenarial transformation. It's second in just over a century. As in 1917 She sees herself as messianic. Putin and others see Mother Russia as Mankind's bulwark against Western depravity.
3. Russia deserves to dominate Eurasia. From the North Sea to the Pacific. Restorationof the former Tsarist empire is a minimal aspiration. It is also a moral imperative.
4. Ukraine is viewed as part of Russia. Not just part ol Her empire.
5. Point 4 means that all who talk of a negotiated settlement of the war in Ukraine are being idiotic.Any settlement is only to provide a pause for Russia to replenish Her battered economy and military.
6. Putin is trying to take advantage of a compliant America to acieve gains poltiically that heis unable to achieve ny force.
7. Any expansion into NATO territory that is currently contemplated is counting on the Atlantic Charteer being permanently reptured and the USA either withdrawing from NATO or ignoring its treaty obligations. Putin recognizes that he has benefitted from possibly Russia's greatest intelligence success since the Cossack uprising against Poland. He wants to leverage this new Overton window to Russian advantage, yet not blow it up into a full scale war.
he will find this an almost impossible challenge, but he sees it as too great an opportunity to not risk the gamble.
8. Russia Has far greater resources than any other majot power, including the USA.
Fortunately for the world Russia has the most corrupt and inept governance of any of the major powers. It is oligarchical fascism using organized crime and the police to run the country. It's core of expertise has long ago been hollowed out in favor of direct looting of the Nation's wealth. It would probaly take another revolution, such as began in the late 1980s Soviet, and was basicallly concluded with Putins consolidation of power early this century, to make Russia an effictive administrative state.
If that happens, and current Putin/Dugin/Russian visions of a Messianic and Holy Russia are still in place, Russian goals would change from aspirational to operational.⁸