Originally Posted by
airb320
Newsflash, I know a lot of Pilots don’t want to hear it but, if the SAN “takes off (aka: is successful)”, the SFO base will surely close!
The reason very simple: COST!
There is zero chance that DM keeps talking about “savings, savings, savings” and yet turns around by opening a base which requires a lounge, a Chief Pilot, an Admin etc., etc., hence increased cost. It just doesn’t make sense and it’s not how AS operates!
It's possible.
As long as the man tossed it out there, I'll speculate about operational reliability, specifically commuters showing up for LC assignments...
One one hand I'm skeptical that commuter reliability is really the tipping point as to whether a hub succeeds. Obviously a lot more goes into that.
But OTH I guess I could see a situation where management has committed very significant resources (planes, gates, staff) and then finds the whole thing is a chit show because pilots don't show up... maybe good load factors but flights canx for crew?
Especially if the reliability is perhaps in stark contrast to other bases? I admit I'd be curious as to the demographics involved... east coast/midwest commuters tend to be older VX people, since few people intentionally sign up at AS with an intent to commute that far. Or is it younger, junior folks, with shorter commutes?