Originally Posted by Turbosina

That's not at all how I read his post. He specifically stated that over the near to medium term future, that upgrades would settle at 5-10 years. I read that as "for people hired now." And I think that's a very reasonable assumption because it would return upgrade times to where they have historically been, on average.

Our late 2022 hires upgraded on the last bid and this one. By the time they hit the line, it'll be 3.5 years since hire. For someone hired in Jan 2026, it's very reasonable to expect that they will be able to upgrade, at best, in 5 years. Because the contract is so much better for reserve guys, and because new CAs now get a year of positive space commuting, the two biggest obstacles to upgrade have been significantly improved. Which is why we're seeing so many more people wanting to jump the trash bag.

Obviously nobody has a crystal ball, but I can't imagine a scenario in which 2026 hires upgrade in the 3.5 years it's taking the late 2022 hires. So I agree fully with VacancyBid's projections.