Originally Posted by
khergan
I don't think anyone is being a doomer here. It's more observations of the hiring date ranges of people who are currently the plug in various NBCA categories and trying to extrapolate based on that. That currently at least appears to be 2021 thru about summerish 2022. In other bases in the last bid, it was going in the 10000-11000 seniority in some of the more senior bases
So yeah, it's not unreasonable to take a swag at 3-5 years depending on the hiring numbers and current trends, base dependent of course.
Could this change? Of course it could. I don't think anyone is saying that it won't, but all we have right now is the data we can see at the moment.
Not disputing any of that, but the hyperbole about the vacancy bids seems to be every time there is a single backfill in one category the derps come out screaming about XXX years to hold XXX and their data point is a single useless piece of data.