I haven't seen anyone posting anything like that.

Simple reality is that, according to the last couple CRUs, the last bid was the major NBCA bid for 2026. Could there be more small bids? Sure, the CRU allows for that possibility. But what's relevant now is, what is the most junior person awarded NBCA or WBFO in recent bids? The answer is, if you want to be awarded NBCA in the last couple bids, you needed to have been hired in late 2022.

Could this upgrade time shorten? Yes. But could it also get a lot longer for people hired in '24 and later? Also yes. The changes in UPA23 heavily incentivized upgrading by giving new CAs positive space commuting for a year, and greatly improving reserve rules. So I think we're seeing a lot of senior FOs jumping the fence, because the short era of frequent monthly CA vacancies is clearly over.

The truth is, none of us know what's going to happen. We're just making our best guesses..I would LOVE to be proven wrong, because I missed the new hire CA thing by *one week* and would much rather be sitting closer to the tiller. But like others here, I'm just prognosticating based on the latest trends and what my buddies are doing. All of my friends who are senior to me and are in the right seat (which is a fair number of people) are itching to upgrade at the first available chance. So I think someone hired today will see a 5 year upgrade. I'd love to be wrong, though!