Originally Posted by
CLazarus
Maybe dumb Americans really think Ukraine can push Russia out, there's arguably around 50% of Americans who fall into that general category. I've never expressed much hope for Ukraine to actually push Russia out. What I'm hoping for is that Russia comes apart at the seams. I read an article just the other day that talked about how that becomes increasingly likely the longer this war continues, especially as Russia sacrifices upwards of five soldiers for each Ukrainian one and its future economic potential is strangled by the coming decline of hydrocarbons.
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Anyways, here's another development that I've noticed but have not seen anything really written about. A big advantage Ukraine now has vs. Russia is a fairly "secure" rear echelon, i.e. - Western Europe. Because from here on out Russia only has its Far East, with pretty much anything to the west at risk. Lots of examples from American military history of how tough it is to defeat an enemy who has a secure rear echelon.
You are aware, no doubt, that Russia has the largest area of ANY country. The vast majority of it is secure.it has a 2600 mile c border with China, which is actively supporting it, and a 770 mile border with Belarus, who is actively supporting it, and a small border even with North Korea, which is actively supporting it. That’s a pretty damn good rear echelon. And unfortunately for Ukraine, it shares 1200 mile plus border with Russia and a 674 mile one with Belarus, even before they occupied 20% of Ukraine. It’s longer and more manpower intensive now.
Oh, and another notable development is it looks like the EU is finally going to succeed in slapping down the Belgians and accessing Russia's >$210 billion in sovereign assets parked in Europe. I'll believe it when the funds start to roll, but it sure looks like Ukraine will be set for years.
I’ll believe it when the funds start to roll too. I understand the reluctance of Western Europe to spend their own money but they also derive a ton of income from international banking. A first ever sovereign wealth confiscation - let alone confiscation of the confiscation of the wealth of all those Russian individuals under sanction, is going to take Europe out of the international banking business for a generation. I thing the bankers in London, Zurich, and Belgium are going to somehow intercede to stop it, but you may be right. Time will tell. But that could - conceivably - fund Ukraine for a few years more of war.