Originally Posted by
Sled
The relevant metric is number of hull losses per departure. Easy google search turns up the following (Boeing publishes every year...this chart breaks it down as hull losses per million departures):
https://www.voronoiapp.com/transport...raft-Type-5491
Then we can do some rough math to figure out total MD-11 departures. ChatGPT estimated approximately 3.2 million total departures, with a range of 3.0-3.4 million. Its math seemed reasonable to me. With a total of 10 MD-11 hull losses, we can compute the MD-11 hull loss rate per million departures as:
10/3.2 = 3.125 hull losses per million departures
(with a range of 3.333 to 2.94 for the low and high end of number of departures respectively). If you compare it to Boeing's data in the link you see that the MD-11 has a safety record that is basically on par with older aircraft which are no longer in service. For the sake of comparison, the other aircraft in service at FDX and UPS have the following rates:
777: 0.12
767: 0.13
757: 0.22
747-8: 0
737-400: 0.54
A300-600: 0.53 (I think all of the freighters are -600s)
So statistically speaking, the MD-11 is about 23-26 times more dangerous then similarly sized Boeing freighters (767, 777) and about 5 times more dangerous than the A300.
It is also important to look at the individual accidents and their respective reports. I understand what the statistics you’ve calculated say. But there is more nuance to each individual accident. It’s not that hard to look up all 11 hull losses. And there is no debate on the MD11s handling characteristics as stated by both the NTSB and FAA. But 3 of the hull losses were Korean 6316, CFIT due to confusion on meters and feet. Avent 324 which tried to takeoff without takeoff power. The captain had been flying an A340 for 6 months. The FO had not flown in over a year and the two other crew had 0 time in type. And lastly Swissair 111, which we all know about.
China eastern 583 was an inadvertent slat deployment as well causing 2 fatalities. The flap handle was then modified with that purple plastic to prevent accidental deployment.
For the bounced landing accidents:
FDX14
FDX80
LH8460
China 642- landing in tropical storm 26G38 direct x wind. The aircraft touched down on its right engine separating the wing.
FDX87.
45 knot airspeed discrepancies. And continuing the approach and landing fast.
And there was the UPS reject above V1.
Im not trying to dismiss the numbers or the inherent instability. Im just trying to provide some information that you can think about. So there is more information than just 3.125.