This has definitely been a bad week for airlines, both big and small. Just yesterday, Continental announced 3000 layoffs and a 10% cut in capacity. The move brought them in line with other major carriers and now we wonder what's next. Furloughs? Complete shutdowns? Who knows.

I'm going to take the contrarian position. I think we're going to see some good news in the next month or so. After watching CNBC all day, it's clear everyone, traders and politicians alike, are in a panic over oil. I wouldn't be surprised to see a major release of oil from the SPR. The situation has gotten to dire not to act.

I think several reasons argue for a release. First, it's an election year. Enough said. Second, we are hovering on the verge of a deep recession if oil continues to shoot through the roof or even remain steady. No politician wants to deal with a replay of 1970's stagflation. Third, it's quite possible we could lose the domestic airline industry unless oil falls and falls significantly.

The SPR is there for dire circumstances. The economic conditions today certainly qualify as dire, at least as it relates to energy and those industries that rely on energy prices (airlines, automotive). None of this may stave off some sort of tough period for airlines, but it may shorten the duration of the hardship.

Keep an eye out for the Energy Department.