Originally Posted by
Hotel Kilo
Hello, DAL guy here. Yes, we are #2 at BOS and #2 at SEA. We won't be #2 at BOS for much longer. JBLU is foundering there. We'll continue to capacity dump on them. We've opened the 330 pilot base there and we fully expect to add other fleets to base there. At SEA we are behind Alaska, but not by much. We have plans there and as our 350s continue to roll in expect more of a footprint there as well. If you think we're going to surrender AUS to you I think you'd be wrong. Big plans there.
The problem you all have is you don't offer premium anything. And you are at least a decade behind DAL and UAL on that. The market demographics have been shifting. People, the customers we (DAL and UAL) are targeting, want the premium experience. Do you have galleys in your planes? I don't recall seeing them. Do you offer anything close to D1 or Polaris? Not even your "first class" is comparable to DAL or UAL. Again, you are about a decade behind where the market is moving. UAL and DAL have seen it and they are working to secure that premium flyer.
As far as Alaska goes in SEA, Delta is number two and has been for decades(even with NW).
in order for you to compete with them in the future you're going to have to build lounges, upgrade cabins and service and provide a truly premium product. UAL getting their cabins with more premium is going to give you guys some issues. They fly to more areas that are your "turf" than we do. However, AUS won't be one place we are going to sit idly by. That is a premium market and one you won't be able to compete for unless and until you offer something commensurate with what we and UAL offer.
Lot of friends that fly for you guys, I hope to see you bring your A-game here. But until you get the lounges, the cabin interiors and truly offer a premium product you will lose market share to us and UAL. It's already happening. You can keep flying Joe and Margarita around p2p but in the end the $$$ are in the premium customer.
IF, I say IF SWA does $4.00 as share in 2026(which is the low end of the guidance)or even as Jamie Baker put it(not my words)as he did a double upgrade on the stock, he put it at $5.00 to $6.00 a share, "SWA operating margins could be as high as Delta's in 2026". We'll see. Believe it or not its earnings are not based on "premium". Competition is good. RASM for SWA in the first quarter is guided to be up 9.5%. I have not seen that since the last decade for most carriers, let alone SWA. Proof will be in the report cards that they give out every 90 days. I reserve judgment until then.
As far as SEA goes, Delta and even NW were always number two. That hasn't changed in decades and probably won't anytime soon. The market share gap is as wide as a A350 in SEA. The only gap that is bigger is AUS. BOS is a different story. I agree that JBLU has issues. But don't think UAL or AAL will sit idle either. UAL is catching Delta very fast. UAL has a much bigger international footprint than Delta. More widebodies than Delta too. So far now you are top dog on the earnings front.