Originally Posted by
Hotel Kilo
So you haven ovens on your planes now? Lounges? premium cabins? You say you are getting there. But you are a bit late leaving the station on it. At least that's what my friends tell em that fly at SWA.
You're working for it, ok. But when are you going to get there? Meanwhile UAL is deploying their Polaris cabin NB fleet and we are deploying the D1 NB. We also have more premium seating in each of our planes that you all do. How many premium seats can you plug into a MAX 8? UAL and DAL can plug many in a MAX 10 and a 321 NEO (as well as the 75).
How long until you get to the lounges, real premium seating, and food service on your aircraft? You're losing time. I bring this up due to the aggressive nature of UALs deployment of their NB fleets with significant premium seating available. Again, they are more of competition out there than we are as you all seem to operate out of the same places than we do.
If SWA does $4.00-$6.00 a share in 2026, that would make SWA operating margins as high or maybe even higher than UAL and Delta, This happy talk of premium is the only way it will begin to subside. I still reserve judgment on it because its such a turnaround. I also reserve judgment because the macro can always and does take assumption's from a perfect scenario. If SWA does $2.0-$2.5 Billion in earnings without lounges, first class and "food service", your argument starts too lose its muster. Especially on the domestic side of the business where 95% of SWA's revenue is derived from. PRASM for 2025 came in pretty much industry norm stage length adjusted(without all the new initiatives turned on). As I posted previously, RASM guidance is suppose to be up 9.5% for the first quarter(the dead quarter). Comps also play a role in this because both PRASM and RASM have been underperforming for years. So the numbers look big. EM sold 4 million shares recently and still has 46 million in ownership. They seem to think their is more earnings to come. They are much smarter than me. When other airlines revenues are derived from a large portion of its revenues form international(UAL 45%) its make total sense and the yields prove it. Domestically all the big three plus SWA, domestic yields have been lack luster over the last three years. Most of it is capacity driven. SWA definitely had a lot to do with it because they are the largest domestic airline. Lounges are coming, code sharing, earn and burn on the partnerships as well as new chase card. If that is not baked into earnings in 2026 even better. One bit of other info, ATL (air traffic liabilty)was down but that's because passengers are already beginning to use their points for buy ups. Competition is good and keeps this business moving. If you think that SWA will falter, bankrupt in a year or two and furlough, well thats your opinion. Who knows you maybe right. Both Delta and UAL are doing great financially. First financial test will be in about 90 days with their first report card. We'l see how everyone compares.