Originally Posted by
BlueScholar
The pre UPA, midcontinent base growth to incentive upgrades is largely done, so it’s trending back to the traditional pattern of pushing new hires to SFO and EWR. I imagine you’ll see a very fast progression initially until you get past to the people who want to be based elsewhere, then it will slow until the more senior local folks to get tired of redeyes or upgrade. If hiring continues as planned it won’t take long. The 25% mark is a ~15,700 seniority number, and I think we have 19,000 pilots on property so that’s like 2-2.5ish years.
This is sound logic. If SFO is anything like EWR, ~50%-55% after year 1. ~30%-40% at year 2. Progression slows at that point. This is all dependent on hiring and deliveries of course. 25% in the 2.5-3 year mark isn’t totally unrealistic