Originally Posted by
VacancyBid
Assume 750 retirements/yr and currently 19,000 pilots. Based on retirements alone, seniority progression is
1 year - 18250 (96%)
2 years - 17500 (92%)
3 - 16750 (88%)
4 - 16000 (84%)
That's with no growth.
For 17,500 to be 75% seniority requires 23K pilots (2k/yr growth)
For 16,750 ... 22K (1k/yr growth)
for 16,000 ... 21K pilots (500/yr growth)
3 years seems plausible for 2026 hires
If this is based on retirements alone I think we will still see pilots hired less than 3 years being able to upgrade to NBCA over the next few years as the new planes keep getting delivered. So yes, someone hired today could still upgrade by 2029 if we do indeed get 400 more planes and have 2,500 retirements. Should be easy.